# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-09-06 (settled) · 34 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP07 · as_of 2026-10-26T06:03:04Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-06 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-24..2026-09-04 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26SEP07 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after August 31, 2026 at 8:30am ET and before Sep 7, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 4 of 6 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:56Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-30 of 34 by p · more: offset=30 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	109	81	0.74	YYnYYYYYYY	8	3	0.85	3	3	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	160	95	0.59	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.76	0	0	no		1
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	8	6	0.75	nnYYYYYY	8	1	0.75	12	15	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	54	35	0.65	nnYYYYnnnn	8	2	0.75	4	4	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	218	120	0.55	YYYYYnYnYY	8	3	0.75	8	8	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	107	45	0.42	YnnnnYYYYY	8	3	0.74	11	11	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	43	22	0.51	nYYYYYnYYY	8	1	0.7	2	2	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	41	27	0.66	YYYYYYnYYn	8	1	0.68	2	2	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	13	8	0.62	nnnnYnYYYY	8	2	0.67	4	6	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	52	33	0.63	YnYYYnYYnn	8	0	0.66	3	3	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	90	49	0.54	nnYYYnnYYY	8	3	0.66	11	15	yes	1	
Melania	melania	75	47	0.63	YYYYnYnYYY	8	1	0.65	2	2	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	45	31	0.69	YnYYYYYnnn	8	0	0.64	0	0	no		1
Fraud	fraud	87	34	0.39	nnYnYnYnnn	8	1	0.63	4	4	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	65	29	0.45	nYYYnYnYnn	8	0	0.62	0	0	no		1
Moon	moon	26	11	0.42	YnnnnnnnYY	8	1	0.56	0	1	yes		1
Greenland	greenland	55	21	0.38	nYnYnYnnnn	8	0	0.55	0	0	no		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	59	34	0.58	nnnnnYnYnn	8	0	0.51	0	0	no		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	25	12	0.48	nnYnnnYYnY	8	0	0.5	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	14	4	0.29	nYnnnnYnYn	8	0	0.48	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	32	10	0.31	nnYnnYYnYn	8	0	0.47	0	0	no		1
Soleimani	soleimani	15	6	0.4	nnnnYnnYnn	8	0	0.42	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	486	53	0.11	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.39	2	2	yes	1	
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	7	1	0.14	nYnnnnn	8	0	0.37	0	0	no		1
Antifa	antifa	20	3	0.15	nnnnnnnnnY	8	0	0.35	0	0	no		1
Epstein	epstein	132	30	0.23	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.34	0	0	no		1
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	31	9	0.29	nnnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.28	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	27	6	0.22	nnnnYYnnnn	8	1	0.25	2	2	yes	1	
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	19	2	0.11	nnnnnnnnYn	8	0	0.23	0	0	no		1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	60	7	0.12	nYYnnnYnnn	8	0	0.2	0	0	no		1