# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-05-24 (settled) · 32 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:05:59Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-24 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY25 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after May 18th at 8:00am ET and before May 25, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	81	60	0.74	YYnYnYYnYn	1	1	0.82	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	13	12	0.92	nYYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.81	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	77	49	0.64	nYnYnYYnnn	1	0	0.8	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	54	35	0.65	nYnYYnYYnY	1	0	0.77	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	127	70	0.55	YnYYnnnYnY	1	1	0.74	0	0	yes	1
Landslide	landslide	12	9	0.75	YnYYYnYYYn	1	0	0.71	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	57	35	0.61	nYYYnYYYnn	1	0	0.71	0	0	no	1
Hottest	hottest	235	126	0.54	nnnYnYYYYY	1	1	0.7	0	0	yes	1
Mutilation / Mutilization	mutilation|mutilization	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	35	23	0.66	YYYnnYnYYn	1	0	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	23	13	0.57	YYnYnnYYYn	1	0	0.69	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	30	21	0.7	YYnnnYYYYn	1	1	0.68	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	43	28	0.65	YYnYnYYnnn	1	0	0.68	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	34	20	0.59	YYYYnnnYYY	1	0	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Dumocrat / Dumbocrat	dumbocrat|dumocrat	0	0			1	0	0.61	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	72	45	0.62	YYYYYYnnYn	1	0	0.59	0	0	no	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	32	11	0.34	YnYYYYnnnY	1	0	0.57	0	0	yes	1
Warsh	warsh	7	3	0.43	nYYnnnY	1	0	0.54	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	22	13	0.59	nYnYYnYnnY	1	1	0.53	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	44	18	0.41	nYYnYnYYnn	1	1	0.53	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	41	20	0.49	nYnnnnnnYn	1	1	0.5	0	0	no	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	10	4	0.4	nYnnnnYYYn	1	0	0.5	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	113	28	0.25	YnYnnYnnnn	1	0	0.47	0	0	no	1
Pope	pope	13	3	0.23	nnnYnnnnYn	1	0	0.46	0	0	no	1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.39	0	0	no	1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	12	3	0.25	YnnYnYnnnn	1	1	0.36	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	377	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.34	0	0	no	1
Uranium	uranium	11	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.26	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	18	2	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.17	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	42	4	0.1	nnnnnYnnnn	1	0	0.17	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	32	4	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.12	0	0	no	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	25	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.12	0	0	no	1