# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-05-10 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY11 · as_of 2026-10-25T05:06:08Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-10 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY11 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after May 4th at 10:15am ET and before May 11, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	76	57	0.75	YYnYYYYnYn	1	1	0.82	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	11	10	0.91	YYnYYYYYYY	1	0	0.8	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	72	47	0.65	nnYnnnYnYn	1	0	0.79	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	51	33	0.65	YnYnYnYYnY	1	0	0.77	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	55	35	0.64	YYnYYYnYYY	1	0	0.75	0	0	no	1
Transgender	transgender	112	63	0.56	nnnYnYYnYn	1	1	0.75	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	40	28	0.7	YYYYYnYnYY	1	0	0.73	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	33	22	0.67	YYYYYnnYnY	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Hottest	hottest	217	115	0.53	nYnYYYYYYn	1	1	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	28	20	0.71	YYYYnnnYYY	1	1	0.66	0	0	yes	1
Mutilation / Mutilization	mutilation|mutilization	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Warsh	warsh	3	2	0.67	nYY	1	0	0.64	0	0	no	1
Autism	autism	20	11	0.55	YYYYYnYnnY	1	0	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Landslide	landslide	8	6	0.75	YYYnYYYn	1	0	0.63	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	69	44	0.64	nYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.63	0	0	no	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	30	10	0.33	nYYnYYYYnn	1	0	0.63	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	32	18	0.56	YYYYYYnnnY	1	0	0.6	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	20	12	0.6	YYnYnYYnYn	1	1	0.56	0	0	no	1
Windmill	windmill	36	19	0.53	nnnnYnYnnn	1	1	0.54	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	41	17	0.41	YnnnYYnYnY	1	1	0.5	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	110	28	0.25	nnYYnYnnYn	1	0	0.49	0	0	no	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	8	3	0.38	nYnnnnYY	1	0	0.45	0	0	yes	1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.45	0	0	no	1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	9	3	0.33	nnYnnYnYn	1	1	0.43	0	0	no	1
Pope	pope	11	2	0.18	nYnnnYnnnn	1	0	0.4	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	358	38	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.37	0	0	no	1
Uranium	uranium	9	0	0	nnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.28	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	16	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.17	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	39	4	0.1	nnnnnnnnYn	1	0	0.17	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	30	4	0.13	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.12	0	0	no	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	23	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.12	0	0	no	1