# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-03-29 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR30 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:36:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-29 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR30 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after March 23rd, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Mar 30, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	65	49	0.75	YnYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.84	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	90	51	0.57	YnYYnYYYnn	1	1	0.78	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	34	24	0.71	YYYYnnYYYY	1	0	0.77	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	51	34	0.67	YYnYYYYYYn	1	0	0.77	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	22	17	0.77	YYYnnYYYYY	1	1	0.74	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	40	26	0.65	nYYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.73	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	28	16	0.57	YYYYYYYnnn	1	1	0.69	0	0	no	1
50,000	50 000	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	45	26	0.58	YYYYYnnYYn	1	0	0.65	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	25	17	0.68	YYnnYnnYYY	1	0	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	32	20	0.62	YYYYnnnYYY	1	0	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	12	7	0.58	YYYYnnnYYn	1	1	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	11	5	0.45	YnnnnYnYnY	1	0	0.62	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	24	13	0.54	nYYYnnnYYY	1	0	0.57	0	0	yes	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.54	0	0	no	1
Eight War	eight war	66	37	0.56	nYnYnnnYYn	1	1	0.52	0	0	yes	1
Hottest	hottest	185	95	0.51	nnYnYnnnnY	1	1	0.49	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	58	34	0.59	nYYYYYnnYn	1	0	0.48	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	98	23	0.23	nYnnYnnnYn	1	0	0.48	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	35	13	0.37	YYnnYYYnnn	1	1	0.46	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	21	4	0.19	nYnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.46	0	0	yes	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	8	2	0.25	YYnnnnnn	1	0	0.36	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	324	31	0.1	nnnnnnnnnY	1	0	0.34	0	0	yes	1
Nobel	nobel	30	3	0.1	nYnnYnnnnY	1	1	0.28	0	0	yes	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	16	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.2	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	24	4	0.17	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.18	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	33	3	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.15	0	0	no	1