# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-03-22 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR23 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:32:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-22 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR23 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after March 16th, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Mar 23, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	60	44	0.73	nnYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.83	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	83	46	0.55	YnnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.77	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	33	23	0.7	YYYYYnnYYY	1	0	0.76	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	48	32	0.67	YYYYYnYYYY	1	0	0.76	hist	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	4	3	0.75	YYYn	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	21	16	0.76	YYYYnnYYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	39	25	0.64	nnYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.71	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	24	15	0.62	YnnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	43	25	0.58	YnYYYYYnnY	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	31	19	0.61	YYYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	23	15	0.65	YYYYnnYnnY	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	11	7	0.64	YYYYYnnnYY	1	1	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
World Cup	world cup	12	7	0.58	YYnnnnYYnY	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	23	12	0.52	YnYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Khamenei	khamenei	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	15	8	0.53	YnYnnnnnYn	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	34	13	0.38	YYYnnYYYnn	1	1	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	56	33	0.59	nYnYYYYYnn	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	96	22	0.23	nnnYnnYnnn	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	20	4	0.2	nnYnnnnYnn	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	7	2	0.29	YYnnnnn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	313	30	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Nobel	nobel	28	2	0.07	nnnYnnYnnn	1	1	0.31	hist	0	0	no	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	14	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.24	hist	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	23	4	0.17	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.19	hist	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	32	3	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.15	hist	0	0	no	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.56	prior	0	0	yes	1