# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-03-08 (settled) · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR09 · as_of 2026-10-24T10:13:24Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-08 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR09 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after March 2nd, 2026 at 9:00am ET and before Mar 9, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	55	40	0.73	YYYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.83	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	30	20	0.67	YYYYYYYYnn	1	0	0.73	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	46	30	0.65	nYYYYYYnYY	1	0	0.73	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	74	40	0.54	YnYYnnYYYn	1	1	0.73	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	19	14	0.74	nYYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	37	23	0.62	nnnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Space Force	space force	10	6	0.6	nnnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.68	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	21	14	0.67	YYYYYYnnYn	1	0	0.65	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	41	24	0.59	YYYnYYYYYn	1	0	0.65	0	0	no	1
Cookie	cookie	12	7	0.58	YYYYnYnnnn	1	0	0.64	0	0	no	1
Windmill	windmill	20	11	0.55	nYYYYnnnYY	1	1	0.61	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	29	17	0.59	nYYYYYYnnn	1	0	0.58	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	9	5	0.56	nYYYYYnnn	1	1	0.57	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	20	10	0.5	nnnYnYYYnn	1	0	0.56	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	32	13	0.41	nnYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.53	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	1	0	0.52	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	54	33	0.61	nnnYnYYYYY	1	0	0.5	0	0	no	1
Mog / Mogged / Mogging	mog|mogged|mogging	6	0	0	nnnnnn	1	0	0.5	0	0	no	1
World Cup	world cup	10	5	0.5	YYYYnnnnYn	1	0	0.49	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	12	2	0.17	YnnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.45	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	87	20	0.23	nnnnnnnnYn	1	0	0.44	0	0	no	1
Nobel	nobel	26	2	0.08	nnnnnYnnYn	1	1	0.35	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	294	28	0.1	nnnnnnnYnn	1	0	0.32	0	0	yes	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	21	4	0.19	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.22	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	30	3	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.16	0	0	no	1