# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-03-01 (settled) · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR02 · as_of 2026-10-26T00:10:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-01 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26MAR02 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after February 23rd at 12:30am, and before Mar 2, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	54	39	0.72	YYYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.82	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	44	28	0.64	YnnYYYYYYn	1	0	0.72	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	29	19	0.66	YYYYYYYYnn	1	0	0.71	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	71	38	0.54	YYYYnYYnnY	1	1	0.71	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	36	22	0.61	YnnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.68	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	19	13	0.68	YnYYYYYYnn	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	32	15	0.47	nYnYYnYnYn	1	1	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	18	13	0.72	YnYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.65	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.63	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	8	5	0.62	nYYYYYnn	1	1	0.63	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	40	23	0.57	YYYYnYYYYn	1	0	0.63	0	0	yes	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	4	2	0.5	YYnn	1	0	0.63	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	28	17	0.61	nnYYYYYYnn	1	0	0.61	0	0	no	1
Windmill	windmill	17	9	0.53	YnnnYYYYnn	1	1	0.61	0	0	no	1
Olympics	olympic	30	15	0.5	YnYnYnnYnY	1	0	0.61	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	9	7	0.78	YYYYYYnYn	1	0	0.6	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	19	10	0.53	YnnnYnYYYn	1	0	0.57	0	0	no	1
Hockey	hockey	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.53	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	8	1	0.12	nnYnnnnn	1	0	0.51	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	31	12	0.39	nnnYYYnnYY	1	1	0.46	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	53	32	0.6	nnnnYnYYYY	1	0	0.45	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	85	19	0.22	Ynnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.43	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	287	27	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.34	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	19	4	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.27	0	0	no	1
Nobel	nobel	24	1	0.04	nnnnnnnYnn	1	1	0.25	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	29	3	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.17	0	0	no	1