# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-06-28 (settled) · 32 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN29 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:49:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-28 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-06-23..2026-06-26 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN29 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after June 22nd, 2026 at 11am ET and before Jun 29, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 10 of 12 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:47Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-28 of 32 by p · more: offset=28 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	91	68	0.75	nYYYYnYYnY	8	3	0.84	hist	15	15	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	102	69	0.68	YYYnYYnnnY	8	2	0.83	hist	7	7	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	152	88	0.58	YYYnYYYnYn	8	4	0.79	hist	12	12	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	25	19	0.76	YYYYYnYnYY	8	2	0.78	hist	6	6	yes	1	
Hottest	hottest	262	141	0.54	YnnYYYnYYn	8	4	0.74	hist	15	15	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	40	25	0.62	nYYYYYnYYY	8	1	0.68	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	10	6	0.6	nnYnYYYYYn	8	0	0.68	hist	1	3	no	0	
50,000	50 000	18	14	0.78	YYYYYYnnYn	8	1	0.67	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	35	25	0.71	YYYYnYnYYY	8	3	0.67	hist	10	10	yes	1	
Melania	melania	59	37	0.63	nYYnYYnnYn	8	0	0.67	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	49	20	0.41	nnYnYnYYYn	8	0	0.64	hist	1	2	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	48	31	0.65	YYnnnnYYYn	8	1	0.62	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	63	37	0.59	YYYnnnnYnn	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	28	16	0.57	YnnYYnnnYY	8	1	0.56	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	86	29	0.34	nnnnYnnYnY	8	2	0.56	hist	2	3	yes	1	
Autism	autism	29	15	0.52	YYYYnnYnnn	8	0	0.55	hist	0	0	no		1
American Flag Blue	american flag blue	5	2	0.4	nYYnn	8	0	0.53	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Fraud	fraud	45	18	0.4	nYYnYYYnnn	8	0	0.51	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Windmill	windmill	49	23	0.47	YnnnYYnYnn	8	1	0.48	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	80	46	0.57	YnnnnnnnYn	8	1	0.46	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Juneteenth	juneteenth	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.45	hist	0	0	no		1
Epstein	epstein	121	29	0.24	nnnnnnnnYn	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	11	3	0.27	YYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	411	41	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.32	hist	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	15	4	0.27	nYYYnnnnnn	8	0	0.31	hist	0	0	no		1
Uranium	uranium	22	3	0.14	YYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.29	hist	0	0	no		1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	9	1	0.11	nnnnnYnnn	8	0	0.26	hist	0	0	no		1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	17	3	0.18	Ynnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.19	hist	0	0	no		1