# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-06-07 (settled) · 32 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN08 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:40:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-07 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20..2026-06-05 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN08 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after June 1st at 8:00am ET and before Jun 8, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 4 of 5 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:47Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 1 appearance since 2026-06-07 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-06-07:tv_episode: the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only) (no_source; needs youtube_client_uas)
# rows 1-26 of 32 by p · more: offset=26 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
50,000	50 000	15	13	0.87	YYYYYYYYYn	5	0	0.83	hist	0	0	no		1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	84	63	0.75	YnYYnYYnYY	5	3	0.83	hist	6	7	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	84	56	0.67	YYnnnYYYYY	5	3	0.81	hist	6	6	yes	1	
Melania	melania	56	36	0.64	nYYnYYnYYn	5	0	0.78	hist	0	0	no		1
Transgender	transgender	134	76	0.57	YnnYnYnYYY	5	4	0.77	hist	7	8	yes	1	
Mutilation / Mutilization	mutilation|mutilization	5	5	1	YYYYY	5	4	0.76	hist	7	8	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	16	12	0.75	YnYYYYnYnY	5	2	0.74	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Hottest	hottest	241	130	0.54	YYYYYYYnnY	5	3	0.73	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	32	22	0.69	nnnYYYYnYn	5	2	0.66	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Thug	thug	37	25	0.68	YnnYnYYnYY	5	1	0.66	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Autism	autism	26	15	0.58	YnnYYYYnnY	5	0	0.66	hist	0	0	no		1
Newscum	newscum	60	36	0.6	YnYYYYnnnn	5	0	0.65	hist	1	1	yes	1	
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	37	22	0.59	YnnnYYYYYn	5	1	0.65	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	36	13	0.36	YYnnnYYnYn	5	2	0.62	hist	9	9	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	45	29	0.64	nYnYYnnnnY	5	0	0.61	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	75	45	0.6	YYYnnYnnnn	5	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	25	14	0.56	YYnYnnYYnn	5	1	0.54	hist	0	0	no		1
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	8	3	0.38	nYYnYnnn	5	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no		1
Pratt	pratt	1	0	0	n	5	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no		1
Windmill	windmill	45	21	0.47	nnnnYnnnYn	5	2	0.49	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	5	2	0.4	nnYnY	5	1	0.48	hist	13	18	yes	1	
Epstein	epstein	118	28	0.24	Ynnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	12	4	0.33	nnnnYYYnnn	5	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no		1
Ballroom	ballroom	73	24	0.33	YnnnYnYnYn	5	0	0.39	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	385	41	0.11	nnnYnYnYnn	5	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no		1
Uranium	uranium	15	2	0.13	nnnnnnnYYn	5	0	0.31	hist	0	1	yes		1