# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-05-31 (settled) · 32 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:36:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-31 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after May 25th at 5:00pm ET and before Jun 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-28 of 32 by p · more: offset=28 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
50,000	50 000	14	13	0.93	YYYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.84	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	83	62	0.75	nYnYYnYYnY	1	1	0.83	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	80	52	0.65	YnYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	55	36	0.65	YnYYnYYnYY	1	0	0.79	hist	0	0	no	1
Mutilation / Mutilization	mutilation|mutilization	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.77	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	132	74	0.56	YnYnnYnYnY	1	1	0.76	hist	0	0	yes	1
Landslide	landslide	13	10	0.77	nYYYnYYYYn	1	0	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hottest	hottest	238	128	0.54	YnYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	31	22	0.71	YnnnYYYYnY	1	1	0.66	hist	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	36	24	0.67	YYnnYnYYnY	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	58	35	0.6	YYYnYYYnnn	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	35	21	0.6	YYYnnnYYYY	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	no	1
Autism	autism	24	13	0.54	YnYnnYYYnn	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	33	12	0.36	nYYYYnnnYY	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	44	28	0.64	YnYnYYnnnn	1	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	73	45	0.62	YYYYYnnYnn	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	23	13	0.57	YnYYnYnnYn	1	1	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
Tulsi / Gabbard	gabbard|tulsi	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	42	20	0.48	YnnnnnnYnn	1	1	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	115	28	0.24	YnnYnnnnnn	1	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Stupid Question	stupid question	11	4	0.36	YnnnnYYYnn	1	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Ballroom	ballroom	70	22	0.31	nYnYnnnYnn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pope	pope	14	3	0.21	nnYnnnnYnn	1	0	0.37	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	380	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.32	hist	0	0	yes	1
Prediction Market / Predictive Market	prediction market|predictive market	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.28	hist	0	0	yes	1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	13	3	0.23	nnYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.27	hist	0	0	no	1
Uranium	uranium	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.2	hist	0	0	yes	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	19	2	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.15	hist	0	0	no	1