# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-01-05 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN05 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:06:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-05 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN05 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Jan 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	9	8	0.89	YnYYYYYYY	0.78	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	32	20	0.62	YYnYYYYnnn	0.78	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	28	17	0.61	YYYYYYYYYn	0.77	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	37	24	0.65	YnnYYnYYYn	0.76	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	22	14	0.64	nYYnYYYYYY	0.75	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	10	7	0.7	YYnYnYYYYn	0.73	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	46	25	0.54	YYnnYYYYnn	0.72	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	18	11	0.61	nYYnYYnYYn	0.7	0	0	no	1
IQ	iq	13	7	0.54	nnnnYnYYYY	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.66	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	34	24	0.71	YnnnYYYYYn	0.64	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	11	7	0.64	YYYnYYnnYn	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	18	11	0.61	nnYYnYYYYn	0.62	0	0	no	1
Olympics	olympic	16	7	0.44	nnYnnnYYYn	0.61	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	10	6	0.6	nYYYnnnYYY	0.57	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	37	19	0.51	YYYnnYYYYn	0.55	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	11	5	0.45	nnYYnYYnnn	0.54	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	37	10	0.27	YnnnYYYnnn	0.48	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	50	23	0.46	nYYYYnnnnn	0.47	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	0	0			0.46	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	28	13	0.46	YnYnnnnnYY	0.42	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	23	7	0.3	nnnYnYnnnn	0.41	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	54	11	0.2	nnnnnnnYYY	0.33	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	222	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.3	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	19	3	0.16	nnnnnnnYYn	0.26	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	42	8	0.19	nnnnYnnnnn	0.24	0	0	no	1
Email	email	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.24	0	0	no	1