# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-02-22 (settled) · 45 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB23 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-february-22 · as_of 2026-10-26T18:37:18Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-02-22 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB23 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Feb 23, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-february-22 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between February 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-25 of 45 by p · more: offset=25 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	K	16	14	0.88	YYYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.86	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	KP	47	34	0.72	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.82	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	K	18	13	0.72	nYnYYYYYYn	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	K	7	5	0.71	nYYYYYn	1	1	0.71	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	K	26	18	0.69	YnnYYYYYYY	1	0	0.71	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	KP	40	25	0.62	nnnYYnnYYY	1	0	0.71	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	17	12	0.71	YYnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	K	58	32	0.55	YnnYYnnYYY	1	1	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	K	66	35	0.53	YYnYYYYYnY	1	1	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	K	7	6	0.86	YYYYYYn	1	0	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Shit / Ass	ass|shit	P	7	5	0.71	YnnYYYY	1	0	0.69	hist	0	0	no	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	K	29	14	0.48	nYnnYnYYnY	1	1	0.67	hist	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	K	35	21	0.6	YYnnnnYYYY	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	K	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	26	16	0.62	YnnnYYYYYn	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	no	1
Olympics	olympic	K	27	13	0.48	YnYYnYnYnn	1	0	0.63	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	36	20	0.56	YYYYYYYYnY	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	K	13	7	0.54	YYnYYnnnYY	1	1	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Two weeks	two week	P	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Make America Great Again	make america great again	P	4	1	0.25	nnnY	1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	K	17	9	0.53	YYYnnnYnYY	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Golf / Golfer	golf|golfer	P	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	K	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Democracy	democracy	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Sick person	sick person	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1