# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-02-08 (settled) · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB09 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:11:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-08 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB09 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after February 2nd at 10:00am ET and before Feb 9, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	14	13	0.93	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.85	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	43	30	0.7	YYYnYYYYYY	1	1	0.79	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	15	12	0.8	YYYYnYYYYY	1	1	0.76	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	16	12	0.75	YnnYnYYYYY	1	0	0.69	0	0	yes	1
IQ	iq	18	11	0.61	nYYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	5	4	0.8	nYYYY	1	1	0.68	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	23	15	0.65	YnYYnnYYYY	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	38	23	0.61	YnnnnYYnnY	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	55	29	0.53	nnYYnnYYnn	1	1	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	24	12	0.5	YnYYnYYnYn	1	0	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	5	5	1	YYYYY	1	0	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	33	19	0.58	YYYYnnnnYY	1	0	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	61	31	0.51	YYYYnYYnYY	1	1	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	27	12	0.44	YnnYnnYnYn	1	1	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	34	19	0.56	nnYYYYYYYY	1	0	0.6	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	24	15	0.62	YYYnnnYYYY	1	0	0.59	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	15	7	0.47	nnYYYnnnYn	1	0	0.51	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	28	10	0.36	YnnnnnYYYn	1	1	0.49	0	0	no	1
Insurrection Act	insurrection act	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.49	0	0	no	1
Paid Agitator	paid agitator	0	0			1	1	0.49	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	42	26	0.62	YnnYYnnnnn	1	0	0.48	0	0	yes	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	13	4	0.31	nnnnnYnnnn	1	0	0.45	0	0	no	1
Antifa	antifa	12	2	0.17	nnnnnnnnnn	1	1	0.4	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	67	15	0.22	nYYYnnYnnn	1	0	0.34	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	262	25	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.33	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	25	3	0.12	nYYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.19	0	0	no	1