# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-08-30 (settled) · 31 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG31 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:03:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-30 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-08-19..2026-08-28 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG31 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after August 24, 2026 at 8:00am ET and before Aug 31, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 5 of 9 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T14:43:12Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 1 appearance since 2026-08-30 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-08-30:interview: the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only) (late)
# rows 1-27 of 31 by p · more: offset=27 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	108	80	0.74	nYYnYYYYYY	8	2	0.85	4	4	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	156	94	0.6	nYYYnnnnnn	8	0	0.79	0	0	no		1
Landslide	landslide	53	35	0.66	YnnYYYYnnn	8	1	0.75	0	1	no		1
Transgender	transgender	215	117	0.54	nnYYYYYnYn	8	3	0.74	5	7	yes	1	
Ballroom	ballroom	105	43	0.41	YYYnnnnYYY	8	3	0.72	2	6	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	8	1	0.71	0	0	yes		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	51	33	0.65	YYnYYYnYYn	8	0	0.69	0	0	no		1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	44	31	0.7	YYnYYYYYnn	8	0	0.68	0	0	no		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	39	26	0.67	YYYYYYYYnY	8	0	0.65	0	0	no		1
Ukraine	ukraine	87	46	0.53	nYYnnYYYnn	8	0	0.65	1	1	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	64	29	0.45	YnYYYnYnYn	8	0	0.65	0	3	no		1
Kamala	kamala	41	20	0.49	nnnYYYYYnY	8	0	0.64	0	0	yes		1
Melania	melania	74	46	0.62	nYYYYnYnYY	8	1	0.63	2	4	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	12	7	0.58	YnnnnYnYYY	8	1	0.63	0	0	yes		1
Fraud	fraud	83	33	0.4	nnnYnnYnYn	8	1	0.61	1	1	yes	1	
Windmill	windmill	66	33	0.5	YYnYYYnnYn	8	0	0.57	0	0	no		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	24	11	0.46	nnnYnnnYYn	8	0	0.54	2	15	yes	1	
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	58	34	0.59	YnnnnnYnYn	8	0	0.53	0	0	no		1
Newscum	newscum	75	42	0.56	nnYYnYnnnn	8	0	0.53	0	0	no		1
TikTok	tiktok	62	16	0.26	nnYYYYYnnn	8	0	0.48	0	0	no		1
Soleimani	soleimani	14	6	0.43	nnnnnYnnYn	8	0	0.47	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	30	9	0.3	nnnnYnnYYn	8	0	0.46	0	0	no		1
JD / Vance	jd|vance	13	4	0.31	nYnnnYnnnY	8	0	0.38	6	10	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	481	52	0.11	nnnnYnnnnn	8	1	0.35	0	2	no		1
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	29	9	0.31	nnnnnYnnnn	8	0	0.31	0	2	no		1
Karoline / Leavitt	karoline|leavitt	28	7	0.25	nnnYYnnnYY	8	3	0.26	1	1	yes	1	
Stupid Question	stupid question	26	6	0.23	nnnnnYYnnn	8	0	0.26	0	0	no		1