# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-04-19 (settled) · 54 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:28:50Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-19 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 20, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-19 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-25 of 54 by p · more: offset=25 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	KP	70	53	0.76	YYYYYYYYnY	1	1	0.85	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	KP	65	43	0.66	nYYnYYnnnn	1	0	0.8	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	KP	99	57	0.58	YYnnYYnnnY	1	1	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	K	8	7	0.88	YYYnYYYY	1	0	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	K	37	26	0.7	YnnYYYYYnY	1	0	0.75	hist	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	KP	45	29	0.64	YYYYYYYnYn	1	0	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	K	15	8	0.53	nYnYnYYYYn	1	0	0.72	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	51	31	0.61	nnYYYYnYYn	1	0	0.71	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	K	28	20	0.71	nYnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.7	hist	0	0	no	1
Make America Great Again	make america great again	P	8	5	0.62	nnnYYYYY	1	1	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	36	24	0.67	nnnYYYYYYY	1	0	0.67	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	25	17	0.68	nnYYYYYnnn	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	K	33	18	0.55	YYYnnnnYnn	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	K	28	17	0.61	nnnYYYYYYY	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	no	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	P	34	15	0.44	YnYYnYYnYn	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	no	1
No No No	no no no	P	13	7	0.54	YYYnnnYnnn	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Hottest	hottest	K	199	104	0.52	YYYYnYnnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Central Casting	central casting	P	4	2	0.5	nYYn	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	K	16	10	0.62	nnnYYYnYnY	1	1	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Sucker / Loser	loser|sucker	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Christmas	christma	P	11	8	0.73	YYYYnnYYYn	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	no	1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	K	25	7	0.28	nnYnnnYYnY	1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Kirk	kirk	K	0	0			1	0	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	K	63	39	0.62	YnnYYYnYYY	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	P	16	9	0.56	YnnnnnYYYn	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1