# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-04-12 (settled) · 52 words in 53 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26APR13 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-12 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:30:05Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-12 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26APR13 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 13, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-april-12 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-24 of 53 by p · more: offset=24 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	K	68	52	0.76	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.85	hist	0	0	no	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	K	60	42	0.7	YYYYYnYYnY	1	0	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	K	97	56	0.58	YYYYnnYYnn	1	1	0.79	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	K	36	25	0.69	YYnnYYYYYn	1	0	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	K	43	28	0.65	YYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.76	hist	0	0	yes	1
50,000	50 000	K	7	6	0.86	YYYnYYY	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	K	14	8	0.57	nnYnYnYYYY	1	0	0.72	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	24	17	0.71	YnnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.69	hist	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	K	27	19	0.7	nnYnnYYYYY	1	0	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	49	30	0.61	YYnnYYYYnY	1	0	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Shit / Ass	ass|shit	P	10	7	0.7	YnnYYYYnYY	1	0	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	35	23	0.66	YnnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Make America Great Again	make america great again	P	6	3	0.5	nnnYYY	1	1	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Windmill	windmill	K	31	18	0.58	YYYYYnnnnY	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction / Predicted	predict|predicted|prediction	P	0	0			1	0	0.63	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	K	27	16	0.59	YnnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Two weeks	two week	P	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.61	hist	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	K	15	9	0.6	YnnnYYYnYn	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Eight War	eight war	K	69	38	0.55	YnnnYYYnnn	1	1	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Hottest	hottest	K	194	101	0.52	nnYnnYYYnY	1	1	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	P	31	13	0.42	YnnYnYYnYn	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	K	17	10	0.59	YnnnnnYYnY	1	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no	1
Lee / Zeldin	lee|zeldin	P	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Common Sense / Commonsense	common sense|commonsense	P	0	0			1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1