# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-09-01 (settled) · 38 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25SEP · as_of 2026-10-24T21:11:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25SEP ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} after Aug 4 at 4:45 PM ET and before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	7	3	0.43	YnnYnYn	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Africa	africa	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Witch Hunt	witch hunt	2	1	0.5	nY	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bitcoin	bitcoin	8	1	0.12	nnnnnnYn	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Hunter	hunter	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1
Too Big to Rig	too big to rig	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epstein	epstein	16	2	0.12	nnnYYnnnnn	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Loomer	loomer	4	0	0	nnnn	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Swamp	swamp	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Pelosi	pelosi	0	0			0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	7	1	0.14	nnnnYnn	0.42	hist	0	0	yes	1
Palestine	palestine	2	0	0	nn	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	0	0			0.4	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	9	2	0.22	nnYnnnnYn	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Zelenskyy	zelenskyy	14	5	0.36	nYnnnnnnYY	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
Recession	recession	4	0	0	nnnn	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon	elon	31	16	0.52	nnnnYnnnnn	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Ballroom	ballroom	2	1	0.5	nY	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Sydney Sweeney	sydney sweeney	2	0	0	nn	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Dead Country	dead country	1	0	0	n	0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
South Park	south park	1	0	0	n	0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
AOC	aoc	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Bill Clinton	bill clinton	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Clean Beautiful Coal	clean beautiful coal	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Colbert	colbert	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Comey	comey	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Con Job	con job	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Larry Summers	larry summer	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Lisa Monaco	lisa monaco	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Lyin Kamala	lyin kamala	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Massie	massie	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Nest Egg	nest egg	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Paramount	paramount	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
Schiff	schiff	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	yes	1
Two-State	two state	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1
UFC	ufc	0	0			0.44	prior	0	0	no	1