# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-10-27 (settled) · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT27 · as_of 2026-10-24T22:20:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-27 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT27 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 27, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	15	7	0.47	nnYnYYYYYn	0.77	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	14	6	0.43	YnnYYYYYnn	0.74	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	14	7	0.5	nYYnYYYnnn	0.71	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	15	6	0.4	nYnnYYYnYn	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Insurrection	insurrection	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.58	0	0	yes	1
Nine War	nine war	0	0			0.57	0	0	no	1
Fake News	fake new	27	13	0.48	nnnnYnnYYn	0.55	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	0.55	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	7	2	0.29	nnYnnYn	0.55	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.53	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	2	1	0.5	nY	0.52	0	0	no	1
King	king	6	3	0.5	nYYnYn	0.51	0	0	yes	1
Soybean	soybean	0	0			0.47	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	27	7	0.26	nnnnnYnnnn	0.43	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.43	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	20	8	0.4	nnnnnYnnnn	0.4	0	0	no	1
Soros	soro	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.4	0	0	no	1
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.37	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	22	3	0.14	nnnnYnnnnn	0.34	0	0	no	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	7	1	0.14	Ynnnnnn	0.34	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	150	10	0.07	nnnnnnnYYn	0.28	0	0	yes	1