# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-10-13 (settled) · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT13 · as_of 2026-10-24T09:01:26Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-13 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT13 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 2:00PM ET October 6th and before Oct 13, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	11	5	0.45	nnnYnnYYYY	0.7	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	12	5	0.42	YnnnnYnYYY	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	11	6	0.55	nnYnYYnYYn	0.65	0	0	yes	1
Football	football	2	2	1	YY	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Nobel Prize / Peace Prize	nobel prize|peace prize	2	2	1	YY	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	12	4	0.33	YnnnYnnYYn	0.61	0	0	yes	1
UFC	ufc	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.57	0	0	no	1
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	11	7	0.64	nnYYYYYYYn	0.56	0	0	yes	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.48	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.48	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.47	0	0	no	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.47	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	17	8	0.47	YnYnnnnnYn	0.44	0	0	no	1
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.39	0	0	no	1
Amish	amish	1	0	0	n	0.39	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	22	6	0.27	YYnnnnnnnn	0.37	0	0	yes	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.36	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	19	3	0.16	YYnnnnnYnn	0.36	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	136	8	0.06	nnYYYnnnnn	0.34	0	0	no	1
Buttigieg	buttigieg	2	0	0	nn	0.33	0	0	no	1
DeSantis	desantis	2	0	0	nn	0.33	0	0	no	1