# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-11-24 (settled) · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV24 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:22:54Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-24 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV24 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Nov 24, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	21	13	0.62	YYYYYnYYYY	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	4	4	1	YYYY	0.72	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	8	5	0.62	nYnnYYYY	0.66	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	21	12	0.57	YYnnnYYYYY	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	4	3	0.75	nYYY	0.65	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	19	9	0.47	YYYnYnYYnY	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	24	18	0.75	YYYYnYYYYY	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	34	18	0.53	YYnYYYnnYY	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Manhattan	manhattan	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	19	9	0.47	YYYnnnnnYn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	7	3	0.43	YnnYnYn	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Beef	beef	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
New York	new york	16	8	0.5	nYYYnnnYYn	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	10	5	0.5	YnnYYnYYnn	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Turkey	turkey	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
BBC	bbc	1	0	0	n	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	192	18	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1
IQ	iq	9	3	0.33	YYnnnnnYn	0.43	hist	0	0	yes	1
Argentina	argentina	2	0	0	nn	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Maduro	maduro	11	4	0.36	YnnnYnnYYn	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	28	12	0.43	nnYnYYnnYn	0.38	hist	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	34	7	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	0.26	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	39	6	0.15	nnYYnnnnnn	0.26	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	10	1	0.1	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.22	hist	0	0	no	1
Email	email	1	0	0	n	0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Marjorie Taylor Greene	marjorie taylor greene	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1