# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-11-17 (settled) · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV17 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:02:55Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-17 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV17 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Nov 17, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	20	12	0.6	YYYYYYnYYY	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	3	3	1	YYY	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	18	8	0.44	nYYYnYnYYn	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	2	2	1	YY	0.66	hist	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	19	10	0.53	YYYYnnnYYY	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	7	4	0.57	nYnnYYY	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	32	16	0.5	nnYYnYYYnn	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
Manhattan	manhattan	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	9	5	0.56	YnnYYnYYn	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	21	15	0.71	YYnYYYYnYY	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	18	9	0.5	YYYYnnnnnY	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	6	3	0.5	YnnYnY	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
New York	new york	15	7	0.47	YnYYYnnnYn	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	183	18	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Beef	beef	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	25	11	0.44	YnnnnYnYYn	0.42	hist	0	0	no	1
Maduro	maduro	9	3	0.33	nYnnnYnnY	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Olympic	olympic	3	0	0	nnn	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	33	7	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	0.28	hist	0	0	no	1
Nobel	nobel	14	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.25	hist	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	9	1	0.11	Ynnnnnnnn	0.24	hist	0	0	no	1
Argentina	argentina	1	0	0	n	0.5	prior	0	0	no	1