# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-11-10 (settled) · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV10 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:36:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-10 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV10 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Nov 10, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	19	11	0.58	YYYYYYYnYY	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	17	8	0.47	nnYYYnYnYY	0.67	hist	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	2	2	1	YY	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	8	5	0.62	YnnYYnYY	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Fake News	fake new	29	15	0.52	nnYnnYYnYY	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	2	1	0.5	nY	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	18	9	0.5	YYYYYnnnYY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	17	8	0.47	nYYYYnnnnn	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	10	4	0.4	nnYnnYYnYn	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	6	3	0.5	nYnnYY	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Manhattan	manhattan	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	24	11	0.46	nYnnnnYnYY	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Kim Jong Un	kim jong un	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	11	4	0.36	nnnnnnnYYY	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	171	17	0.1	YYYYYnnnnn	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	32	7	0.22	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.29	hist	0	0	no	1
Nobel	nobel	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.26	hist	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	8	1	0.12	Ynnnnnnn	0.25	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	1	1	1	Y	0.47	prior	0	0	yes	1
Argentina	argentina	0	0			0.47	prior	0	0	no	1