# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-11-03 (settled) · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV03 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:49:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-03 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25NOV03 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Nov 3, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	18	10	0.56	nYYYYYYYnY	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	16	7	0.44	YnnYYYnYnY	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	16	7	0.44	nYYYYYYnnn	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	16	8	0.5	YnYYYYnnnn	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	7	4	0.57	YnnYYnY	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	28	14	0.5	nnnYnnYYnY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	9	4	0.44	nnYnnYYnY	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Green New Scam	green new scam	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	5	2	0.4	nYnnY	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
Halloween	halloween	2	0	0	nn	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	1	0	0	n	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Soros	soro	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	162	13	0.08	nnnnnnnnnY	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	31	7	0.23	nYnnnnnnnn	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	23	10	0.43	nnYnnnnYnY	0.31	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	7	1	0.14	Ynnnnnn	0.31	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	24	3	0.12	nnYnnnnnnn	0.27	hist	0	0	no	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	9	2	0.22	YnnnnnnnY	0.25	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	0	0			0.48	prior	0	0	yes	1