# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-12-29 (settled) · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC29 · as_of 2026-10-24T12:43:16Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-29 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC29 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	29	18	0.62	YYYYnYYYnn	0.79	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	34	22	0.65	YYnnYYnYYY	0.77	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	27	17	0.63	nYYYYYYYYY	0.77	0	0	no	1
Mental Institution	mental institution	8	7	0.88	YnYYYYYY	0.75	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	45	25	0.56	nYYnnYYYYn	0.74	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	9	7	0.78	YYnYnYYYY	0.73	0	0	no	1
New York	new york	21	13	0.62	nnYYnYYYYY	0.73	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	17	11	0.65	YnYYnYYnYY	0.7	0	0	no	1
Christmas	christma	9	7	0.78	YYYYYnnYY	0.69	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.66	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	33	24	0.73	YYnnnYYYYY	0.64	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	10	7	0.7	YYYYnYYnnY	0.64	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	16	10	0.62	YYnnYYnYYY	0.62	0	0	no	1
IQ	iq	12	6	0.5	nnnnnYnYYY	0.62	0	0	yes	1
Beef	beef	10	5	0.5	nYnnYYYYnn	0.62	0	0	no	1
Olympics	olympic	15	7	0.47	YnnYnnnYYY	0.62	0	0	no	1
Windmill	windmill	9	4	0.44	YnnYYnYnn	0.62	0	0	no	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	9	5	0.56	nYYYnnnYY	0.57	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	35	18	0.51	nYYYYnnYYY	0.55	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	25	11	0.44	nnYYnYnnnn	0.45	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	22	7	0.32	nnnnYnYnnn	0.45	0	0	no	1
Maduro	maduro	34	9	0.26	nnnYnnnYYn	0.44	0	0	yes	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	14	4	0.29	nYYnnnnnnn	0.33	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	217	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.32	0	0	no	1
Email	email	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.27	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	17	2	0.12	nnnnnnnnnY	0.26	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	41	8	0.2	nnnnnYnnnn	0.25	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	52	9	0.17	nnnnnnnnnY	0.25	0	0	yes	1