# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2026-05-15 · 41 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY15 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-bret-baier-interview · as_of 2026-10-24T17:45:42Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-15 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Fox News: Special Report , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-bret-baier-interview (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance.
# rows 1-35 of 41 by p · more: offset=35 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	KP	144	93	0.65	YYYnYnnYYn	1	1	0.68	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	K	75	40	0.53	YYYnYnnnYn	1	1	0.64	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	K	28	19	0.68	YYYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Biden	biden	KP	248	167	0.67	YnYYnnnnYn	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Iran	iran	P	101	64	0.63	nnYnYYYnYn	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	KP	36	18	0.5	nnYYnnnnYn	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	K	100	55	0.55	YnnnYYYYnn	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Boeing / Plane	boeing|plane	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	K	173	109	0.63	YYYnnnnYnn	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	K	9	5	0.56	nnYYYnnYY	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	K	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Invest / Invested / Investment	invest|invested|investment	K	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Obama	obama	P	20	12	0.6	nnYYnnYYYY	1	0	0.5	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	K	226	119	0.53	nYYYnnYnnn	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Child	child	P	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Soybean / Farmer	farmer|soybean	K	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.46	hist	yes
See what happens	see what happen	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.44	hist	yes
Elon / Jensen	elon|jensen	K	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.43	hist	no
Eight Wars / Eighth War	eight war|eighth war	P	10	6	0.6	YYYYYnnnYn	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Moon	moon	P	11	4	0.36	nYnYnYYnnn	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Jensen	jensen	P	0	0			1	0	0.42	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	K	118	65	0.55	YnYYnYnnnn	1	1	0.41	hist	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	K	36	10	0.28	nnnYYnnnYn	1	1	0.4	hist	no
Elon / Jensen / Tim	elon|jensen|tim	P	0	0			1	1	0.4	hist	no
Strait / Hormuz	hormuz|strait	P	6	2	0.33	YnnYnn	1	0	0.39	hist	yes
North Korea / Kim Jong Un	kim jong un|north korea	P	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.39	hist	no
Chip / Ship	chip|ship	P	2	1	0.5	nY	1	1	0.38	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	K	147	56	0.38	nYYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.38	hist	yes
Friend	friend	P	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.37	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	P	64	21	0.33	YYnnYYnYnY	1	0	0.36	hist	no
Robot / Robotic / Robotics	robot|robotic	K	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.36	hist	no
My Father / Fred	fred|my father	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.36	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	P	52	21	0.4	YnnnnnnnYY	1	1	0.35	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	K	50	12	0.24	YnnYnnnnnn	1	0	0.32	hist	no
COVID / Pandemic	covid|pandemic	P	7	1	0.14	nYnnnnn	1	0	0.32	hist	no