# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · podcast_episode 2026-03-03 · 48 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR17 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-chancellor-merz-on-march-3 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:58:34Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-03 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 podcast episode transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR17 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of next White House (YouTube) live announcement by Donald Trump, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-events-with-chancellor-merz-on-march-3 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Chancellor Merz on March 3, 2026.
# rows 1-32 of 48 by p · more: offset=32 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Trillion	trillion	1	K	74	54	0.73	YYnYYYYnYY	1	1	0.66	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	91	62	0.68	YYYnYnYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	130	87	0.67	nYYYYnYnnn	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	KP	111	70	0.63	nnnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	191	133	0.7	nnnnYYYnYn	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	KP	58	34	0.59	nYnYYYnnnY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	K	6	4	0.67	YnnYYY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	119	76	0.64	YnYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
NATO	nato	1	KP	48	24	0.5	nYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.52	hist	no
Eight War	eight war	1	K	57	33	0.58	nnYYnYYYnn	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Percent 7+ times	percent#7	7	P	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	K	156	87	0.56	YYnYYnYYYn	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	K	48	27	0.56	YnnYYnnYYY	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
Wind / Solar	solar|wind	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.49	hist	yes
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	1	K	12	7	0.58	YnYnnnYYYn	1	0	0.47	hist	yes
Friend of Mine	friend of mine	1	P	10	5	0.5	nYnnnYYnYY	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	2	1	0.5	nY	1	1	0.46	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	P	105	47	0.45	nYYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.46	hist	no
Israel	israel	1	K	52	28	0.54	nnnnnYnYYn	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
Windmill	windmill	1	K	18	9	0.5	nnnYYYYnnn	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
ICE / Border Patrol	border patrol|ice	1	P	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.43	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	7	3	0.43	nYYnnnY	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Angela / Merkel	angela|merkel	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.41	hist	yes
Biden 4+ times	biden#4	4	P	5	2	0.4	nnYnY	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Ripped / Ripping	ripped|ripping	1	P	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	1	0.39	hist	no
France	france	1	P	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.39	hist	no
Greenland	greenland	1	KP	40	16	0.4	YnnnnnnYnn	1	1	0.37	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	P	28	10	0.36	YnYnnnnYYY	1	1	0.37	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	34	11	0.32	nnYnYnnYnn	1	1	0.37	hist	yes
Uranium	uranium	1	K	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.37	hist	no