# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-11-13 · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV13 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:57:08Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-13 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV13 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Dinner on November 12th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p
Biden	biden	101	79	0.78	YYYnYYnYYY	0.78
Tariff	tariff	60	47	0.78	nYYYnYYYYn	0.73
China	china	62	50	0.81	YYYYnYYnYn	0.72
Trillion	trillion	19	14	0.74	YYYYnYYnYY	0.66
Democrat	democrat	34	23	0.68	YnnYYYYYnn	0.61
Investment	investment	30	16	0.53	YYYYnYYnnY	0.58
Election	election	31	20	0.65	YYnnnYYnYn	0.54
Radical Left	radical left	18	11	0.61	YYnnYnYYnn	0.54
Middle East	middle east	20	10	0.5	YnnnYYYnnn	0.54
Hottest	hottest	63	34	0.54	nnYnnnnYnn	0.53
New York	new york	13	6	0.46	nnYnYYYnnn	0.52
Trump	trump	20	10	0.5	nYnnYYnYYY	0.47
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	9	4	0.44	YYYnYnnnn	0.46
Fed / Too Late	fed|too late	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.44
Low IQ	low iq	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.44
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	16	6	0.38	nnnYYnnYnn	0.39
Ballroom	ballroom	14	5	0.36	YnnnnnnnYn	0.39
Stock Market	stock market	13	5	0.38	nnYYnnnnnn	0.38
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	46	19	0.41	nYnYYnnYnn	0.37
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	20	9	0.45	nYYnnnnnnn	0.36
Schumer	schumer	17	5	0.29	nnYYnnnnnn	0.33
Epstein	epstein	25	3	0.12	nYnnnnnnnn	0.3
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	179	18	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.2