# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2025-11-11 · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV11B · as_of 2026-10-24T21:45:36Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-11 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV11B ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The Ingraham Angle on November 10th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
China	china	58	48	0.83	YYYnYYYYnY	0.76	hist	yes
Biden	biden	96	75	0.78	nnnYYYYYnY	0.76	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	56	44	0.79	nYYYnYYYnY	0.71	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	15	11	0.73	YYnnYYYYnY	0.65	hist	yes
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	0.59	hist	no
Investment	investment	26	14	0.54	YnnYYYYYnY	0.56	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	7	4	0.57	YYnnYYn	0.53	hist	yes
Border	border	59	37	0.63	nnnYYYnYnn	0.52	hist	no
Syria	syria	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.51	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	9	5	0.56	YYYnnYYnn	0.51	hist	no
Oil	oil	26	8	0.31	nnYYYYnnnn	0.45	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	57	33	0.58	nnYYnYnnYn	0.44	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	16	9	0.56	YnnYnYYnnn	0.38	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	41	18	0.44	nnnnYnYnYY	0.38	hist	yes
Trump	trump	16	7	0.44	nnnnnYnnYY	0.37	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	20	8	0.4	YnYnnnnYnn	0.33	hist	no
Maduro	maduro	7	2	0.29	nYnnnYn	0.33	hist	no
SNAP / Food Stamp	food stamp|snap	2	0	0	nn	0.32	hist	yes
ICE	ice	16	3	0.19	nnnnnnnnnn	0.23	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	173	18	0.1	YYYYnnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Air Traffic	air traffic	0	0			0.42	prior	no