# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-11-08 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV08 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:07:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-08 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV08 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of bilateral meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister on November 7th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Tariff	tariff	55	43	0.78	nnYYYnYYYn	0.75	yes
China	china	57	47	0.82	nYYYnYYYYn	0.74	yes
Biden	biden	95	74	0.78	nnnnYYYYYn	0.72	yes
Trillion	trillion	14	10	0.71	YYYnnYYYYn	0.64	yes
India	india	12	10	0.83	YYYYYYYnYY	0.62	no
Democrat	democrat	31	22	0.71	YYnYnnYYYY	0.6	yes
Election	election	29	19	0.66	nYYYnnnYYn	0.58	yes
Hottest	hottest	55	32	0.58	nnnnYYnYnn	0.57	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	55	35	0.64	nYYYnnnYYn	0.53	yes
Middle East	middle east	17	10	0.59	nnYYnnnYYY	0.53	no
Negotiate / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiation	1	1	1	Y	0.51	no
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.51	yes
Tomahawk	tomahawk	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.51	no
Investment	investment	25	13	0.52	YYnnYYYYYn	0.49	yes
Pipeline	pipeline	9	4	0.44	YnnYYnnnY	0.49	no
New York / Mayor	mayor|new york	0	0			0.47	no
NATO	nato	35	16	0.46	nnnYYnnYnY	0.46	yes
Putin	putin	58	34	0.59	nnYYnnnYnY	0.41	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	40	17	0.42	nnnnnYnYnY	0.39	yes
Trump	trump	15	6	0.4	YnnnnnYnnY	0.35	yes
Water	water	18	5	0.28	nnnnnnYnnn	0.28	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	22	4	0.18	nnnYnnnnnn	0.27	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	169	16	0.09	nnYYYYnnnn	0.15	no
Sanction	sanction	24	3	0.12	nYnnnnnnnn	0.13	no