# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-11-02 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV02 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:34:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-02 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV02 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of MAGA Inc. Dinner on November 1st, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p
China	china	51	43	0.84	YYYYYYnYYY	0.76
Tariff	tariff	50	40	0.8	YYYYYnnYYY	0.76
Biden	biden	87	69	0.79	YYnnnYYYnn	0.73
Trillion	trillion	8	6	0.75	YnYYYYYn	0.63
Democrat	democrat	26	18	0.69	YnYYnYYnYn	0.6
Hottest	hottest	46	29	0.63	YnYnYYYYYn	0.6
Election	election	25	17	0.68	YYYnnYYYnn	0.59
Peace	peace	18	12	0.67	YnnYYnYYYn	0.58
Border	border	51	33	0.65	nYYnnYYYnn	0.56
Stock Market	stock market	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.54
Ballroom	ballroom	6	4	0.67	nYYYYn	0.53
Radical Left	radical left	13	9	0.69	YnYnYYYnnY	0.52
Middle East	middle east	13	7	0.54	YYYYnnYYnn	0.51
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	58	21	0.36	YYnYYYYYYn	0.44
Investment	investment	18	8	0.44	nnYnnnYYYn	0.43
Trump	trump	8	4	0.5	YYYnnYnn	0.41
Manufacturing	manufacturing	8	3	0.38	nnYnYYnn	0.41
Disaster	disaster	8	4	0.5	YYYYnnnn	0.4
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	34	14	0.41	YnYYnnnnnn	0.39
Low IQ	low iq	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.37
Woke	woke	25	4	0.16	nnYnYnnnnn	0.27
America First	america first	13	6	0.46	YYYYnnnnnn	0.26
Nobel	nobel	9	0	0	nnnnnnnnn	0.16
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	160	12	0.07	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.15