# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-20 · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC20 · as_of 2026-10-24T04:04:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-20 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC20 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on December 19th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Drug	drug	25	18	0.72	YYYYYYYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Biden	biden	133	99	0.74	YYnYnYnYYn	0.65	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	69	44	0.64	YnYYYYYYnY	0.57	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	100	55	0.55	YYYnnnnYYn	0.56	hist	no
Christmas	christma	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.55	hist	no
China	china	88	59	0.67	nnYYnnnnnn	0.54	hist	no
Eight War	eight war	20	12	0.6	nnYYYYnYnY	0.5	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	36	20	0.56	YnnYYnnYnn	0.49	hist	no
Hanukkah	hanukkah	6	3	0.5	YYYnnn	0.45	hist	no
Investment	investment	50	23	0.46	nnYnnnnnYY	0.43	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	73	30	0.41	YnYnnYYYYY	0.43	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	20	10	0.5	nnnYYnnnYY	0.41	hist	yes
Radical Left	radical left	32	15	0.47	YnnnYnnYYn	0.37	hist	no
Venezuela	venezuela	11	5	0.45	YYYYnnnnnn	0.27	hist	yes
America First	america first	19	8	0.42	nnnnnYnnnY	0.24	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	48	8	0.17	nnnnnnnnnn	0.24	hist	no
TikTok	tiktok	38	8	0.21	nnnnnnnnYn	0.22	hist	no
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	4	0	0	nnnn	0.21	hist	no
Maduro	maduro	27	6	0.22	nnnnYnnnnn	0.15	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	213	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.07	hist	no
Lottery	lottery	0	0			0.41	prior	no