# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-06 · 20 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC06 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:28:48Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-06 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC06 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of FIFA World Cup Draw, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	80	58	0.72	nYYnYYYYnn	0.71	hist	no
Biden	biden	121	93	0.77	nYYYYYYYnn	0.7	hist	no
China	china	77	57	0.74	YYYnnYnYYn	0.63	hist	no
250	250	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	0.62	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	48	33	0.69	YYYYYYYnnn	0.62	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	86	47	0.55	nnYYYYYYYY	0.59	hist	yes
Election	election	45	28	0.62	nYYYYnnYYY	0.55	hist	no
Mexico	mexico	11	8	0.73	YnYYnYYYnY	0.53	hist	yes
Soccer	soccer	2	1	0.5	nY	0.51	hist	yes
Economy	economy	20	12	0.6	YYYnYYnnYn	0.46	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	11	6	0.55	YnYYYnYnYn	0.43	hist	no
Investment	investment	46	21	0.46	YYnnnnYnnn	0.42	hist	no
Canada	canada	9	4	0.44	YYnnYnnYn	0.39	hist	yes
Olympics	olympic	9	3	0.33	nnnYYYnnn	0.38	hist	no
Bone	bone	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
Ronaldo	ronaldo	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
Nobel	nobel	15	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.13	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	198	19	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.1	hist	no
Ticket	ticket	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Tourist / Tourism	tourism|tourist	0	0			0.41	prior	no