# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-05-14 · 38 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY14 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:53:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-14 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY14 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of State Banquet with the President of the People's Republic of China , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src
Trillion	trillion	94	64	0.68	YYYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.63	hist
Trump	trump	61	38	0.62	nYYYYnYYYn	1	1	0.63	hist
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	6	3	0.5	nnYYYn	1	1	0.6	hist
Nuclear	nuclear	140	91	0.65	YnnYYYYnYn	1	1	0.58	hist
Fake News	fake new	99	55	0.56	YYnnnYYYYn	1	1	0.58	hist
Election	election	88	53	0.6	YnnYnnYYYn	1	1	0.56	hist
Tariff	tariff	169	108	0.64	nYnnYYYnnn	1	1	0.55	hist
Biden	biden	245	166	0.68	YYYYnYYnnn	1	1	0.54	hist
Democrat	democrat	137	92	0.67	YYYYYnnYnn	1	1	0.54	hist
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.52	hist
Farmer	farmer	19	10	0.53	YYnnYYYnYn	1	1	0.51	hist
Russia	russia	58	33	0.57	nYYnYYYYnn	1	1	0.5	hist
Border	border	105	64	0.61	YnYYYYnYnn	1	1	0.48	hist
Soybean	soybean	7	3	0.43	YnnnYYn	1	0	0.48	hist
Moon	moon	10	4	0.4	nnYnYnYYnn	1	1	0.47	hist
Hottest	hottest	221	118	0.53	YYYYYnYYYn	1	1	0.45	hist
Middle East	middle east	31	15	0.48	YYYnYnnnYn	1	0	0.45	hist
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	35	21	0.6	YnYnYnYnnn	1	1	0.43	hist
Stock Market	stock market	72	39	0.54	YnnYYYnYnn	1	1	0.42	hist
Windmill	windmill	38	19	0.5	nnYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.41	hist
Putin	putin	67	37	0.55	YYnnYnnYnn	1	1	0.4	hist
Robot / Robotic / Robotics	robot|robotic	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.4	hist
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	33	17	0.52	nYnnnYYnnn	1	1	0.39	hist
Tiger / Panda	panda|tiger	0	0			1	0	0.39	hist
Covid / China Virus	china virus|covid	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.38	hist
Investment / Invested	invested|investment	32	15	0.47	nnnnnnnYYn	1	1	0.37	hist
Hantavirus	hantavirus	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.36	hist
Dynasty	dynasty	0	0			1	0	0.36	hist
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	143	56	0.39	YYYnnYYnnn	1	1	0.35	hist
Fentanyl	fentanyl	33	9	0.27	nnYnnnYYnn	1	1	0.35	hist
Manufacturing	manufacturing	20	5	0.25	nYnYnnnnnn	1	0	0.33	hist
Disaster	disaster	27	10	0.37	YnnnYnnnnn	1	1	0.32	hist
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	32	11	0.34	nYYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.3	hist
Taiwan	taiwan	14	2	0.14	nnYnnnnnnn	1	0	0.26	hist
Ceasefire	ceasefire	48	12	0.25	nYYnnYnnnn	1	0	0.24	hist
TikTok	tiktok	52	11	0.21	nYnYnnnYnn	1	0	0.24	hist
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	363	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.04	hist
Great Wall	great wall	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior