# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · hearing 2026-03-25 · 58 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR25 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-nrcc-dinner-on-march-25 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:22:45Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-25 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 hearing transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR25 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at the NRCC Annual Fundraising Dinner, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-nrcc-dinner-on-march-25 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the NRCC Dinner scheduled for March 25, 2026.
# rows 1-31 of 58 by p · more: offset=31 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	1	KP	62	46	0.74	YYYYnYYYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	yes
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	1	K	50	34	0.68	YYYnYYYYYY	1	0	0.67	hist	no
Iran	iran	1	K	81	54	0.67	YYYYnYnYYY	1	1	0.64	hist	yes
Mental Institution	mental institution	1	KP	23	18	0.78	YYnnYYnnYY	1	1	0.62	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	K	212	147	0.69	YYYnnYnYYY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	K	87	50	0.57	YYYYnYYnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	K	11	8	0.73	nnYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.59	hist	no
SAVE Act / SAVE America Act	save act|save america act	1	P	13	9	0.69	YYYYnYnnYY	1	0	0.59	hist	yes
Newscum	newscum	1	K	44	26	0.59	nYYYYYnnYY	1	0	0.59	hist	no
Filibuster	filibuster	1	KP	4	4	1	YYYY	1	0	0.58	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	1	KP	8	6	0.75	YnnYYYYY	1	0	0.58	hist	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	K	16	11	0.69	YYYnYYYnnY	1	1	0.58	hist	no
Trillion	trillion	1	K	84	56	0.67	nnnnYnnnYn	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	148	97	0.66	YYnYYnnnnn	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	78	48	0.62	nYYnnYYYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
China	china	1	K	132	85	0.64	YYnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	KP	14	9	0.64	YnYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	K	47	27	0.57	nYYYYYYYnY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
No No No	no no no	1	KP	10	7	0.7	YYYYYYnnnY	1	0	0.54	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	14	8	0.57	nnYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Tax on Tip / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating	cheat|cheater|cheating	1	K	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	K	6	4	0.67	YnYYnY	1	0	0.52	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	75	41	0.55	YYYnnYYnYn	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	54	25	0.46	YYYYnYnnnY	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	K	63	35	0.56	YYnnYnYnnn	1	1	0.5	hist	yes
Job 15+ times	job#15	15	P	6	4	0.67	YYnnYY	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Venezuela	venezuela	1	K	19	11	0.58	nnYYnYYYnY	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
November 5	november 5	1	K	9	5	0.56	YnYnnYYYn	1	1	0.48	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	179	93	0.52	nnnnnnnnYn	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	K	53	27	0.51	nYnnYnnnnn	1	1	0.48	hist	yes