# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2026-02-23 · 19 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB23 · as_of 2026-10-24T12:59:28Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-23 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB23 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Josh Pate's College Football Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	87	58	0.67	nYYnYYYnYn	1	1	0.7	hist	yes
Biden	biden	184	129	0.7	nYYYYYYnnn	1	1	0.64	hist	no
Iran	iran	49	29	0.59	nnnYnnnnYn	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	127	87	0.69	YYnnYYYYnY	1	1	0.55	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	67	36	0.54	YnYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Olympic / Olympics	olympic	28	14	0.5	nYYnYnYnnY	1	0	0.49	hist	no
UFC	ufc	10	6	0.6	nYYnnnYYYY	1	0	0.47	hist	no
Hockey	hockey	0	0			1	0	0.47	hist	no
Miami / Florida	florida|miami	0	0			1	0	0.46	hist	no
Army / Navy	army|navy	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.45	hist	no
Playoff / Tournament	playoff|tournament	0	0			1	0	0.44	hist	no
Saban	saban	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.42	hist	yes
Supreme Court	supreme court	23	7	0.3	nnnnYYnYnn	1	1	0.33	hist	no
Bad Bunny	bad bunny	9	0	0	nnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.18	hist	no
Bowl	bowl	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Graduate / Graduating	graduate|graduating	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Heisman	heisman	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Kickoff	kickoff	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	yes
NIL	nil	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no