# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · tv_episode 2026-02-03 · 24 words in 25 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB03 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-signing-at-2pm · as_of 2026-10-24T21:18:14Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-02-03 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 tv episode transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB03 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The Dan Bongino Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-signing-at-2pm (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on February 3, 2026.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	166	120	0.72	nYYnnYnYnn	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	72	49	0.68	YnYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	K	46	28	0.61	nYYnnYnYnY	1	1	0.54	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	KP	132	74	0.56	YnYnnYnnnn	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Highest Inflation	highest inflation	1	K	4	3	0.75	YnYY	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	P	166	120	0.72	nYYnnYnYnn	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Criminal	criminal	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.43	hist	no
Scam	scam	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.43	hist	no
Greenland	greenland	1	K	36	15	0.42	YYYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Stupid	stupid	1	P	8	4	0.5	nYnYYnYn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator	paid agitator|professional agitator	1	K	4	2	0.5	YYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	1	K	25	11	0.44	nnYnnYnnYn	1	1	0.41	hist	yes
Kash / Patel	kash|patel	1	K	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Clinton	clinton	1	P	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	K	45	19	0.42	YYnnYYYnYn	1	1	0.38	hist	no
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	1	K	16	6	0.38	YnYYYnnnnn	1	1	0.38	hist	no
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	P	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.38	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	P	54	29	0.54	nnnYYnnYYn	1	1	0.34	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	K	59	21	0.36	nYnnnnnYnn	1	1	0.33	hist	no
Mistake	mistake	1	P	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.33	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	K	11	4	0.36	nYYnnYnnnn	1	0	0.3	hist	no
Walz	walz	1	K	7	1	0.14	nYnnnnn	1	0	0.29	hist	yes
Epstein	epstein	1	KP	60	13	0.22	nYYYnnnnYY	1	0	0.27	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	KP	254	25	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.16	hist	no
Best 5+ times	best#5	5	P	0	0			1	1	0.4	prior	no