# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-10 · 22 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT10-2 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:31:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-10 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT10-2 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Cabinet Meeting on October 9th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	62	51	0.82	YYYYYYYnYY	0.82	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	13	10	0.77	YYnYYYYYYY	0.68	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	16	10	0.62	nnYnnnYYYY	0.65	hist	no
Border	border	32	22	0.69	YYnYnYYYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	8	5	0.62	nnnYYYYY	0.59	hist	yes
Peace	peace	15	10	0.67	nYYYnnYYnY	0.57	hist	yes
Deal	deal	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.55	hist	yes
Radical Left	radical left	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.51	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	10	5	0.5	nYYYYnnnnY	0.51	hist	yes
Hamas	hama	19	10	0.53	YnYnYYnnYY	0.49	hist	yes
Military / Veteran	military|veteran	0	0			0.49	hist	yes
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
Water	water	7	3	0.43	YnnYnnY	0.47	hist	yes
Windmill	windmill	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	3	3	1	YYY	0.41	hist	yes
AOC	aoc	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.41	hist	yes
Political Violence	political violence	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.4	hist	no
Hostage	hostage	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.39	hist	yes
Portland	portland	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.39	hist	yes
Economy	economy	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	0.33	hist	yes
Schumer	schumer	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	yes
Furlough	furlough	0	0			0.4	prior	no