# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-11-14 · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV14 · as_of 2026-10-25T16:24:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-14 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV14 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Executive Order Signing Ceremony and Announcements, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	62	47	0.76	YYnYYYYnnn	0.73	hist	no
Biden	biden	103	80	0.78	YnYYnYYYYn	0.72	hist	no
China	china	64	50	0.78	YYnYYnYnnn	0.67	hist	no
Trillion	trillion	21	15	0.71	YYnYYnYYYn	0.67	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	36	24	0.67	nYYYYYnnYn	0.58	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	65	34	0.52	YnnnnYnnnn	0.55	hist	no
Election	election	33	20	0.61	nnnYYnYnnn	0.54	hist	no
Autism	autism	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	no
Youth	youth	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	31	16	0.52	YnnYYnYYYn	0.51	hist	no
Border	border	64	37	0.58	YnYnnnnnnn	0.5	hist	no
Homeless	homeless	2	2	1	YY	0.49	hist	no
College / University	college|university	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Investment	investment	32	16	0.5	YYnYYnnYnn	0.46	hist	no
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	11	5	0.45	YYnYnnnnYn	0.45	hist	no
Disaster	disaster	13	7	0.54	YnnnnnYYnY	0.41	hist	no
Education	education	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.41	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	48	19	0.4	nYYnnYnnnn	0.37	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	14	5	0.36	nYYnnnnnnn	0.36	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	16	5	0.31	nnnnnnYnnn	0.31	hist	yes
Epstein	epstein	27	3	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	0.21	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	181	18	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.13	hist	no
Scholarship	scholarship	0	0			0.41	prior	yes