# Taylor Swift (taylor-swift) · tv_episode 2025-10-06 · 40 words · K k:KXSWIFTMENTION-25OCT06 · P p:what-will-taylor-swift-say-during-tonight-show-on-october-6 · as_of 2026-10-25T11:01:40Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-10-06 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSWIFTMENTION-25OCT06 ({word} = w of K rows): If Taylor Swift says {word} as part of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon starting on October 6th, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-taylor-swift-say-during-tonight-show-on-october-6 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift says the listed term at any point during this episode.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Engage / Engaged	engage|engaged	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.67	hist	no
Era	era	1	KP	1	1	1	Y	0.67	hist	yes
Tour	tour	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.67	hist	yes
Poet	poet	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.65	hist	yes
Baby	baby	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.62	hist	no
Super Bowl	super bowl	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.62	hist	no
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	1	K	0	0			0.56	hist	no
Pregnant / Pregnancy	pregnancy|pregnant	1	K	0	0			0.4	hist	no
Bitcoin / Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	1	KP	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
Breakup / Break Up	break up|breakup	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Kelce	kelce	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	KP	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Pregnant	pregnant	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.29	hist	no
22	22	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Abigail	abigail	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Bad Bunny	bad bunny	1	KP	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Bonus	bonus	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Cat	cat	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Deluxe	deluxe	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Egg	egg	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
EP	ep	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Grammy	grammy	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
James / Comey	comey|jame	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Midnight	midnight	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
NFL	nfl	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Ring	ring	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Sabrina Carpenter	sabrina carpenter	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Sydney / Sweeney	sweeney|sydney	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
The Life of a Showgirl	the life of a showgirl	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Vault / Vaulted	vault|vaulted	1	K	0	0			0.48	prior	no
Wedding	wedding	1	KP	0	0			0.48	prior	yes
Adele	adele	1	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Chiefs 2+ times	chief#2	2	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Jason	jason	1	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Sabrina / Carpenter	carpenter|sabrina	1	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Spotify	spotify	1	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Swiftie 2+ times	swiftie#2	2	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Tour 2+ times	tour#2	2	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Travis / Kelce 3+ times	kelce|travis#3	3	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no