# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-03-05 · 18 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAR05 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:36:21Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-03-05 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAR05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Reward	reward	12	12	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.69	yes
Advantage	advantage	1	1	1	Y	0.48	yes
Strategy / Strategize / Strategic	strategic|strategize|strategy	1	1	1	Y	0.48	yes
Fire	fire	12	7	0.58	nYYYnnnnYY	0.47	no
Puzzle	puzzle	12	5	0.42	nnYnnYnnYY	0.46	no
Flint	flint	8	5	0.62	YYYYnnnY	0.44	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	12	6	0.5	nnYnYYYnYn	0.42	no
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.42	no
Water	water	2	1	0.5	nY	0.42	yes
Key	key	11	3	0.27	nYnnnnnnYY	0.41	yes
Fish / Fishing	fish|fishing	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.38	no
Fiji	fiji	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.35	no
Alliance	alliance	13	2	0.15	nnnnnnnnYn	0.26	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	8	1	0.12	nnnnnnYn	0.26	no
Billie Eilish	billie eilish	1	0	0	n	0.26	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	1	0	0	n	0.26	no
Trust	trust	13	3	0.23	nnnnnnYnnn	0.23	no
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	12	1	0.08	nYnnnnnnnn	0.17	no