# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-04-22 · 19 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR22 · as_of 2026-10-27T03:46:37Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-04-22 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 9 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Fire	fire	19	12	0.63	nYYnYnYYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Safe / Safety	safe|safety	5	4	0.8	YnYYY	0.61	hist	yes
Puzzle	puzzle	19	9	0.47	nYYnYYnnYY	0.53	hist	no
Key	key	18	8	0.44	nYYYYYYnYn	0.48	hist	no
Tie / Tied	tie|tied	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.47	hist	yes
Alliance	alliance	26	8	0.31	YnnYYnnYnY	0.46	hist	no
Rope	rope	5	2	0.4	nYnYn	0.39	hist	no
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	19	8	0.42	nYnnnYnnYn	0.36	hist	no
Water	water	9	4	0.44	nYYnYYnnn	0.35	hist	yes
Sit Out	sit out	6	2	0.33	nYYnnn	0.32	hist	yes
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	15	2	0.13	nYnnnnnYnn	0.26	hist	no
Fallon	fallon	2	0	0	nn	0.26	hist	yes
Dig Deep	dig deep	3	0	0	nnn	0.23	hist	no
Trust	trust	20	3	0.15	nnnnnnnnnn	0.18	hist	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	0.18	hist	yes
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	19	1	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Drop / Dropped	drop|dropped	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Journey	journey	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Record / Longest	longest|record	0	0			0.39	prior	yes