# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-04-01 · 21 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR01 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:17:25Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-04-01 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 6, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Key	key	15	7	0.47	nnnnYYYYYY	0.63	hist	no
Water	water	6	4	0.67	nYYnYY	0.57	hist	no
Sit Out	sit out	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.53	hist	no
Fire	fire	16	9	0.56	nnnnYYnYnY	0.49	hist	yes
Puzzle	puzzle	16	7	0.44	nYnnYYnYYn	0.46	hist	no
Rope	rope	2	1	0.5	nY	0.44	hist	no
Alliance	alliance	20	5	0.25	nYnnnYYnnY	0.42	hist	no
Safe / Safety	safe|safety	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.4	hist	yes
Tie / Tied	tie|tied	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.4	hist	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	16	7	0.44	YYYnYnnnYn	0.36	hist	no
Fish / Fishing	fish|fishing	7	2	0.29	nnYnnYn	0.35	hist	no
Fiji	fiji	6	2	0.33	YnnnYn	0.34	hist	no
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	8	2	0.25	YnnYnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	12	1	0.08	nnnnYnnnnn	0.2	hist	yes
Trust	trust	17	3	0.18	nnYnnnnnnn	0.19	hist	no
Billie Eilish	billie eilish	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.19	hist	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.19	hist	no
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	16	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Dig Deep	dig deep	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Heat	heat	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Sacrifice / Sacrificed	sacrifice|sacrificed	0	0			0.38	prior	no