# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-10-23 · 18 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT23 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:41:08Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-10-23 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT23 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Episode 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Fire	fire	2	2	1	YY	0.55	hist	no
Flint	flint	2	2	1	YY	0.55	hist	yes
Reward	reward	2	2	1	YY	0.55	hist	yes
Trust	trust	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.46	hist	no
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.36	hist	no
Puzzle	puzzle	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.36	hist	no
Alliance	alliance	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.36	hist	no
Fake	fake	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.36	hist	no
Risk	risk	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.32	hist	no
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.29	hist	no
Key	key	1	0	0	n	0.24	hist	no
Snake	snake	1	0	0	n	0.24	hist	no
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	2	0	0	nn	0.21	hist	no
Target	target	3	0	0	nnn	0.18	hist	no
Unfair	unfair	3	0	0	nnn	0.18	hist	no
Weak	weak	3	0	0	nnn	0.18	hist	no
Jury	jury	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Tired	tired	0	0			0.31	prior	no