# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-11-20 · 15 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25NOV20 · as_of 2026-10-24T22:09:26Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-11-20 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25NOV20 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Episode 9, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Reward	reward	6	6	1	YYYYYY	0.65	yes
Fire	fire	6	5	0.83	YYnYYY	0.58	no
Flint	flint	6	4	0.67	YYYYnn	0.4	no
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	6	2	0.33	YnnnYn	0.3	yes
Puzzle	puzzle	6	2	0.33	YnnnYn	0.3	no
Strength / Strong	strength|strong	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.28	yes
Key	key	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	0.24	no
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	6	1	0.17	nnnYnn	0.23	no
Target	target	7	1	0.14	nnnnYnn	0.23	no
Trust	trust	7	2	0.29	YnYnnnn	0.22	no
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.19	yes
Alliance	alliance	7	1	0.14	nnYnnnn	0.19	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	2	0	0	nn	0.19	no
Pressure	pressure	2	0	0	nn	0.19	no
Risk	risk	7	1	0.14	nYnnnnn	0.18	no