# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-12-18 · 13 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC18 · as_of 2026-10-27T02:23:35Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-12-18 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Finale, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Reward	reward	10	10	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.69	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	10	5	0.5	YnnnYnYYYn	0.44	yes
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	10	4	0.4	YnnnnnYYYn	0.4	no
Fire	fire	10	5	0.5	YYnYYYnnnn	0.29	yes
Puzzle	puzzle	10	3	0.3	YnnnYnnYnn	0.27	yes
Trust	trust	11	3	0.27	nYnnnnnnYn	0.27	no
Target	target	11	2	0.18	nnnYnnnYnn	0.24	yes
Risk	risk	11	2	0.18	YnnnnnnYnn	0.23	no
Key	key	9	1	0.11	nnYnnnnnn	0.16	yes
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	10	1	0.1	nnnYnnnnnn	0.16	no
Alliance	alliance	11	1	0.09	nYnnnnnnnn	0.15	yes
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.14	yes
Pressure	pressure	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.14	no