# South Park (south-park) · tv_episode by 2025-10-30 (settled) · 12 words · K k:KXSOUTHPARKMENTION-25OCT30 · as_of 2026-10-26T03:58:27Z
# scope K character · n/y settled before 2025-10-30 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSOUTHPARKMENTION-25OCT30 ({word} = w of K rows): If any South Park character says {word} as part of next South Park episode, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Jesus	jesus	1	2	2	1	YY	0.46	hist
Nobel	nobel	1	0	0			0.14	hist
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	0	0			0.14	hist
TikTok	tiktok	1	2	0	0	nn	0.12	hist
Bitcoin / Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.1	hist
ICE	ice	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.1	hist
Israel	israel	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.1	hist
Tylenol	tylenol	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.1	hist
Ballroom	ballroom	1	0	0			0.17	prior
ChatGPT	chatgpt	1	0	0			0.17	prior
No King	no king	1	0	0			0.17	prior
Trump (2+ times)	trump#2	2	0	0			0.17	prior