# Saturday Night Live (saturday-night-live) · tv_episode 2025-11-16 · 11 words · K k:KXSNLMENTION-25NOV16 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-16 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSNLMENTION-25NOV16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Glen Powell says {word} as part of Saturday Night Live starting on November 15th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Trump	trump	7	5	0.71	nYYYYYn	0.41	hist
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.36	hist
New York City	new york city	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.34	hist
Debut	debut	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist
Tom Cruise	tom cruise	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist
Comedy / Comedian	comedian|comedy	0	0			0.24	hist
ChatGPT	chatgpt	2	0	0	nn	0.21	hist
Chad Powers	chad power	0	0			0.32	prior
Rumor	rumor	0	0			0.32	prior
Sydney Sweeney	sydney sweeney	0	0			0.32	prior
Twister / Tornado	tornado|twister	0	0			0.32	prior