# Nick Shirley (nick-shirley) · interview 2026-01-20 · 12 words · K k:KXSHIRLEYMENTION-26JAN20 · as_of 2026-10-24T10:13:24Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-20 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSHIRLEYMENTION-26JAN20 ({word} = w of K rows): If Nick Shirley says {word} as part of Katie Pavlich Tonight, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	p	res
Billion	billion	0	0		0.42	no
California	california	0	0		0.42	no
Democrat / Left	democrat|left	0	0		0.42	no
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	0	0		0.42	no
Justify / Justified	justified|justify	0	0		0.42	no
Learing	learing	0	0		0.42	yes
Mormon	mormon	0	0		0.42	no
Race / Racist / Racism	race|racism|racist	0	0		0.42	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	0	0		0.42	yes
Trump	trump	0	0		0.42	no
Walz / Governor	governor|walz	0	0		0.42	yes
YouTube	youtube	0	0		0.42	no