# Ted Cruz (ted-cruz) · interview 2026-08-25 · 13 words · K k:KXPOLITICSMENTION-26AUG25 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:53:12Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-25 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-03-01 (under 2 interview transcripts) · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: v K, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXPOLITICSMENTION-26AUG25 ({word} = w of K rows): If Ted Cruz says {word} as part of MS NOW Way Too Early with Ali Vitali or Morning Joe on August 25th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	tn	th	p	res
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Democrat	democrat	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Election	election	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	0	0		1	1	0.45	no
Midterm	midterm	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Paxton	paxton	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Supreme Court / SCOTUS	scotus|supreme court	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	yes
Talarico	talarico	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Tariff	tariff	1	0	0		1	0	0.45	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	0	0		1	1	0.45	no