# NFL (nfl) · game 2026-01-25 · 28 words · K k:KXNFLMENTION-NFLAFCCHAMP · as_of 2026-10-24T21:59:13Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-01-25 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNFLMENTION-NFLAFCCHAMP ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safety	safety	88	86	0.98	YYYYYYYYYY	0.96	hist	yes
Record	record	38	33	0.87	YYnYYYYYYY	0.83	hist	yes
Pro Bowl / Pro Bowler	pro bowl|pro bowler	54	42	0.78	YYYYYYYYYY	0.75	hist	yes
MVP	mvp	11	9	0.82	YnYYYYYYYY	0.74	hist	yes
Mile High	mile high	3	3	1	YYY	0.71	hist	yes
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	70	52	0.74	nnYYYYnYYn	0.71	hist	yes
Altitude	altitude	3	3	1	YYY	0.69	hist	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	yes
Wind / Windy	wind|windy	54	32	0.59	YYYYYnnYYY	0.57	hist	yes
Empower	empower	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.55	hist	yes
Turf	turf	88	49	0.56	nnnYnYnYYn	0.54	hist	no
Fine / Fines / Fined	fine|fined	54	29	0.54	YYYnYnYnnY	0.52	hist	yes
Schedule	schedule	54	28	0.52	YYnnnnYnnn	0.5	hist	yes
Contract	contract	54	24	0.44	YnnnnnnYYn	0.44	hist	no
Next Gen Stat	next gen stat	54	22	0.41	YYnYYnnYnY	0.41	hist	no
Tush Push	tush push	55	19	0.35	nnYYnnYnnn	0.35	hist	yes
What a Catch	what a catch	83	28	0.34	YYYnnnnnYY	0.35	hist	no
Hunt / Hunting	hunt|hunting	54	15	0.28	YnnYnnnnnn	0.29	hist	yes
No Good	no good	32	8	0.25	nYYYnYnnnn	0.28	hist	yes
One Handed	one handed	90	19	0.21	YnnnnnnnYn	0.23	hist	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	90	10	0.11	nnnnYnnnnn	0.14	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	89	9	0.1	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.12	hist	no
Blowout / Blow Out	blow out|blowout	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Dynasty	dynasty	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Flag Football	flag football	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Honor	honor	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Lombardi	lombardi	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Tebow	tebow	0	0			0.49	prior	no